![]() There’s a reason: the AFC South still isn’t great. 10.5 wins and you’ve basically got to pay double. There’s more to like about him than people want to let you know. Can Geno Smith take a step forward under Chan Gailey? That’s the big question for this team and maybe the entire division. 2 role, Jeremy Kerley can man the slot, Devin Smith is a deadly deep threat and Jace Amaro should improve. Brandon Marshall puts Eric Decker into a legitimate No. The defensive line, with the addition of Leonard Williams, is flat-out ridiculous. New York added Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromarite to shore up the secondary. The problem with ALL of the AFC East teams making huge offseason strides is you can’t expect the Bills, Dolphins and Jets to all make a big leap forward. In late October things could take a nasty turn but you’ve got to believe even Joe Philbin can figure out a way to win 3-4 of his final 10 games. Would not be surprised at all if this team started out 6-0. A pair of opening road games at Washington and Jacksonville are a nice opportunity for a hot start to the year. DeVante Parker is a massive help from the draft, Jarvis Landry should take a step forward and losing Mike Wallace is addition by subtraction. Ryan Tannehill’s contract sets Miami up nicely for the long haul, particularly if he has a breakout 2014. His contract doesn’t affect the win-loss total for this year. Ndamukong Suh is a massive impact player on the defensive front. Miami made a lot of smart moves this offseason. At the very least I’m spying 11 or 12 wins here. If Rob Gronkowski is healthy they could seriously run the table. But the Pats are going to be in us-against-the-world mode when Brady comes back. The early bye stings, there isn’t a substantial running game in New England these days and the secondary without Darrelle Revis is a big concern. Even with Jimmy Garrapolo at the helm for the first four games, 2-2 isn’t out of the question against Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, against Jacksonville and at Dallas in the first four games. Brady’s suspension is going to get reduced and end up at one or two games. 10 is probably right for a season without Tom Brady, but right now this over this one of my favorite bets, even at the hefty price. This over/under was initially 12.5 games before Tom Brady got handed a 4-game suspension. Bet $100 on the under and it hits, you’ll win $120.Ī trio of asterisks (***) indicate my favorite locks. ![]() If you bet $100 on the Patriots over and it hits, you’ll win $75 dollars. We’re going plus-.500 in both of them this season.įor those that don’t know, the numbers next to the over and under represent the juice. Weird that the two conferences flipped this year after they were 10-6 and 6-10 for me the year before. At least I had the Cardinals as my lead-pipe lock. I can kind of explain it … I thought every NFC South team would beat their total (WHOOPS), was really down on the Cowboys (HAHA) and liked the Bears to make noise in the NFC North and potentially upstage the Packers (…). Last year I went 10-5-1 in the AFC and OH GOD 3-13 in the NFC. We’ll circle back and check on these as we get closer to the season but for now it’s a good barometer of expectations for every team out there.įor the sake of full disclosure, I went 17-12-3 with my 2012 May picks and 16-16 with my 2013 May picks. We’ll start with the AFC, run division-by-division and use lines courtesy of Sportsbook.ag. To pass the time in a more meaningful way, let’s take our first look at the NFL season win totals for the entire league instead. Things are really looking up for everyone. It’s May which means we’ve got several months of talking about how literally every NFL player lost enough weight to get in the best shape of his life, which probably primes him for a breakout season in 2015. ![]()
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